Real-Time Forecasting of Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks using the Integrating Compartment Model and Assimilation Filtering

Scientific Reports
Zhicheng ZhanPeng Jia

Abstract

Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is a highly contagious viral infection, and real-time predicting of HFMD outbreaks will facilitate the timely implementation of appropriate control measures. By integrating a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model and an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) assimilation method, we developed an integrated compartment model and assimilation filtering forecast model for real-time forecasting of HFMD. When applied to HFMD outbreak data collected for 2008-11 in Beijing, China, our model successfully predicted the peak week of an outbreak three weeks before the actual arrival of the peak, with a predicted maximum infection rate of 85% or greater than the observed rate. Moreover, dominant virus types enterovirus 71 (EV-71) and coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) may account for the different patterns of HFMD transmission and recovery observed. The results of this study can be used to inform agencies responsible for public health management of tailored strategies for disease control efforts during HFMD outbreak seasons.

References

Apr 5, 2008·Indian Journal of Dermatology, Venereology and Leprology·Vikrant A Saoji
Apr 29, 2008·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Tsuyoshi HamaguchiMasahito Yamada
Nov 27, 2009·Medical Microbiology and Immunology·Holger F RabenauHans Wilhelm Doerr
Sep 30, 2010·Epidemiology and Infection·E MaS K Chuang
Oct 19, 2010·International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases·Yan WuVincent T K Chow
Feb 25, 2011·PloS One·Yien Ling HiiNawi Ng
Oct 22, 2011·The Science of the Total Environment·Daisuke Onozuka, Masahiro Hashizume
Nov 28, 2012·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Jeffrey Shaman, Alicia Karspeck
Jun 12, 2013·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Milagrosa MontesGustavo Cilla
Aug 3, 2013·Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering : MBE·Yangjun MaJinqing Zhao
Dec 5, 2013·Nature Communications·Jeffrey ShamanMarc Lipsitch
Feb 4, 2014·The Lancet Infectious Diseases·Weijia XingHongjie Yu
Mar 19, 2014·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Yong LiXinan Zhang
May 15, 2015·PLoS Computational Biology·Kyle S HickmannSara Y Del Valle
Jan 13, 2016·Scientific Reports·Weihua DongQuanyi Wang
Jun 9, 2016·The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal·Wee Ming KohAlex R Cook
Jul 14, 2016·Medical Microbiology and Immunology·S AswathyrajD Hober
Feb 24, 2017·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·Ruiyun LiJeffrey Shaman
Feb 25, 2017·Nature Communications·Nicholas B DeFeliceJeffrey Shaman

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Feb 2, 2021·Sustainable Cities and Society·Miodrag ZivkovicFadi Al-Turjman
Aug 18, 2021·Neural Computing & Applications·Supriya RahejaManoj Kumar

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Software Mentioned

EnKF
SEIR

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.