Real-time investigation of measles epidemics with estimate of vaccine efficacy.

International Journal of Biological Sciences
Keisuke EjimaHiroshi Nishiura

Abstract

As part of measles elimination effort, evaluation of the vaccination program and real-time assessment of the epidemic dynamics constitute two important tasks to improve and strengthen the control. The present study aimed to develop an epidemiological modeling method which can be applied to estimating the vaccine efficacy at an individual level while conducting the timely investigation of the epidemic. The multivariate renewal process model was employed to describe the temporal evolution of infection by vaccination history, jointly estimating the time-dependent reproduction number and the vaccine efficacy. Analyzing the enhanced surveillance data of measles in Aichi prefecture, Japan from 2007-08, the vaccine efficacy was estimated at 96.7% (95% confidence interval: 95.8, 97.4). Using an age structured model, the vaccine efficacy among those aged from 5-19 years was shown to be smaller than that among those from 0-4 years. The age-dependent vaccine efficacy estimate informs the age-groups to be targeted for revaccination. Because the estimation method can rest on readily available epidemiological data, the proposed model has a potential to be integrated with routine surveillance.

References

Mar 1, 1991·International Journal of Epidemiology·M HaberM E Halloran
Dec 1, 1995·Epidemiology and Infection·B G WilliamsC Dye
Feb 24, 2001·Epidemiology and Infection·W J EdmundsUNKNOWN ESEN Project. European Sero-epidemiology Network
Sep 5, 2002·Statistics in Medicine·M EichnerK Dietz
May 15, 2003·Vaccine·J WallingaM Kretzschmar
Aug 27, 2004·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Chris T Bauch, David J D Earn
Jan 9, 2010·Theoretical Biology & Medical Modelling·Hiroshi NishiuraCarlos Castillo-Chavez
Apr 16, 2010·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Michiel van BovenSusan Hahné
Jul 30, 2010·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Feng FuMartin A Nowak
Jun 28, 2011·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Don Klinkenberg, Hiroshi Nishiura
Nov 15, 2011·Theoretical Biology & Medical Modelling·Elson H Y LamHiroshi Nishiura

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Aug 1, 2012·Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine·Welling Oei, Hiroshi Nishiura
Mar 20, 2013·Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine·Kenji MizumotoHiroshi Nishiura
Jan 23, 2014·Theoretical Biology & Medical Modelling·Hiroshi NishiuraMasaya M Saito
Jun 21, 2018·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·Kenji MizumotoGerardo Chowell

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Software Mentioned

R

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.