Real-time prediction of waiting time in the emergency department, using quantile regression

Annals of Emergency Medicine
Yan SunSeow Yian Tay

Abstract

Emergency department (ED) waiting times can affect patient satisfaction and quality of care. We develop and validate a model that predicts an individual patient's median and 95th percentile waiting time by using only data available at triage. From the existing ED information system, we extracted date and time of triage completion, start time of emergency physician consultation, and patient acuity category (1=most urgent, 3=least urgent). Quantile regression was applied for model development and parameter estimation by using visits from January 2011. We assessed absolute prediction error, defined as the median difference between the 50th percentile (median) predicted waiting time and actual waiting time, and the proportion of underestimated prediction, defined as the percentage of patients whose actual waiting time exceeded the 95th percentile prediction. The model was validated retrospectively with June 2010 data and prospectively with data from April to June 2011 after integration with the existing ED information system. The derivation set included 13,200 ED visits; 903 (6.8%) were patient acuity category 1, 5,530 (41.9%) were patient acuity category 2, and 6,767 (51.3%) were patient acuity category 3. The median and 95th perc...Continue Reading

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Citations

Oct 6, 2015·Journal of the American College of Radiology : JACR·Oleg S Pianykh, Daniel I Rosenthal
Aug 26, 2015·International Journal of Emergency Medicine·Yan SunKelvin Brian Tan
May 9, 2014·Health Care Management Science·Shanshan QiuWill Jordan
Dec 8, 2020·Emergency Medicine Australasia : EMA·Katie WalkerAnne Loupis
Jan 26, 2020·Artificial Intelligence in Medicine·Marta FernandesJoão M C Sousa
Mar 16, 2021·The American Journal of Emergency Medicine·Mustafa Gökalp Ataman, Görkem Sarıyer
May 12, 2021·Annals of Emergency Medicine·Katie J WalkerUNKNOWN Australasian College for Emergency Medicine, Clinical Trials Network
Aug 27, 2021·Emergency Medicine Journal : EMJ·Katie WalkerUNKNOWN Australasian College for Emergency Medicine, Clinical Trials Network

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