DOI: 10.1101/461285Nov 5, 2018Paper

Real-time projections of epidemic transmission and estimation of vaccination impact during an Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo

BioRxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
Lee WordenJ Daniel Kelly


BackgroundAs of October 12, 2018, 211 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in North Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. Since the beginning of October the outbreak has largely shifted into regions in which active armed conflict is occurring, and in which EVD cases and their contacts are difficult for health workers to reach. We used available data on the current outbreak with case-count time series from prior outbreaks to project the short-term and long-term course of the outbreak.\n\nMethodsFor short and long term projections we modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process that assumes gradually quenching transmission estimated from past EVD outbreaks, with outbreak trajectories conditioned on agreement with the course of the current outbreak, and with multiple levels of vaccination coverage. We used a negative binomial autoregression for short-term projections, a Theil-Sen regression model for final sizes, and a baseline minimum-information projection using Gotts law to construct an ensemble of forecasts to be compared and recorded for future evaluation against final outcomes. From August 20 to October 13, short-term model projections were validated against actual case counts.\n\n...Continue Reading

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R Foundation for Statistical Computing
R package mblm

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