Response of global particulate-matter-related mortality to changes in local precursor emissions

Environmental Science & Technology
Colin J LeeAaron van Donkelaar

Abstract

Recent Global Burden of Disease (GBD) assessments estimated that outdoor fine-particulate matter (PM2.5) is a causal factor in over 5% of global premature deaths. PM2.5 is produced by a variety of direct and indirect, natural and anthropogenic processes that complicate PM2.5 management. This study develops a proof-of-concept method to quantify the effects on global premature mortality of changes to PM2.5 precursor emissions. Using the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, we calculated sensitivities of global PM2.5-related premature mortality to emissions of precursor gases (SO2, NOx, NH3) and carbonaceous aerosols. We used a satellite-derived ground-level PM2.5 data set at approximately 10 × 10 km(2) resolution to better align the exposure with population density. We used exposure-response functions from the GBD project to relate mortality to exposure in the adjoint calculation. The response of global mortality to changes in local anthropogenic emissions varied spatially by several orders of magnitude. The largest reductions in mortality for a 1 kg km(-2) yr(-1) decrease in emissions were for ammonia and carbonaceous aerosols in Eastern Europe. The greatest reductions in mortality for a 10% decrease in emissions w...Continue Reading

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Citations

Oct 18, 2016·Scientific Reports·Xinglei ZhaoBin Ding
Jan 25, 2017·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Forrest G LaceyRandall V Martin
Mar 16, 2017·ACS Applied Materials & Interfaces·Xinglei ZhaoBin Ding
Aug 20, 2016·Environmental Health Perspectives·Jiandong WangJiming Hao
Sep 19, 2019·Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association·Minghui DiaoAmbarish Vaidyanathan
Jan 8, 2020·Environmental Health Perspectives·Geoffrey Colin L PetersonAna G Rappold
Feb 23, 2020·Nature Communications·Yang OuDaniel H Loughlin
Sep 27, 2019·Nature Communications·Hongyan ZhaoKebin He
Feb 14, 2020·Nature·Irene C DedoussiSteven R H Barrett
May 19, 2018·Central European Journal of Operations Research·Doris A BehrensUlrike Leopold-Wildburger
Jan 8, 2019·Environment International·Bin ZouShenxin Li
Jan 22, 2021·Journal of Environmental Management·Pengcheng WuJi Gao
Dec 22, 2020·Geoscientific Model Development·Shunliu ZhaoTianfeng Chai
May 23, 2021·Reviews on Environmental Health·Rolf Nieder, Dinesh K Benbi
Jan 16, 2019·Environmental Science & Technology·Yunhua ChangJeffrey L Collett
Jun 17, 2015·Environmental Science & Technology·Joshua S ApteMichael Brauer
Aug 25, 2021·The Science of the Total Environment·Xin LiQiang Zhang

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