Risk factors of poultry outbreaks and human cases of H5N1 avian influenza virus infection in West Java Province, Indonesia

International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases
Yuni YupianaJan Hendrik Richardus

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine the association of potential risk factors to the spread and maintenance of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus in poultry and humans at the district level in West Java Province, Indonesia. The association of demography and environmental risk factors including poultry density, human density, road density, percentage of paddy field, and percentage of swamp, dyke and pond with both HPAI human cases and HPAI outbreaks in poultry were assessed using a descriptive epidemiological design. We also assessed the association of HPAI outbreaks in poultry with HPAI human cases. Poisson regression (generalized linear modeling and generalized estimating equations) was used to analyze the data corrected for over-dispersion. There were 794 HPAI outbreaks in poultry covering 24 of the 25 districts in our study during 2003-2008 and 34 HPAI human cases involving 12 districts during 2005-2008. We found that two risk factors--poultry density and road density--had a statistically significant correlation with the number of HPAI outbreaks in poultry. The number of poultry outbreaks had a negative association with poultry density (29% effect) and a positive association with road density (67%...Continue Reading

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Citations

Nov 5, 2013·Lancet·Guillaume Fournié, Dirk U Pfeiffer
May 8, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Guillaume FourniéAzra C Ghani
Sep 13, 2011·PloS One·Eleanor J Murray, Stephen S Morse
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Sep 1, 2012·Emerging Microbes & Infections·Kelvin Kw ToKwok-Yung Yuen

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