Risk matrix for estimating imported outbreaks of measles or rubella in ChileMatriz de risco para estimar surtos importados de sarampo ou rubéola aplicada ao Chile

Revista Panamericana De Salud Pública = Pan American Journal of Public Health
Doris GallegosSergio Loayza

Abstract

Develop a risk matrix to evaluate the ongoing risk of measles and rubella outbreaks associated with imported cases in Chile. The risk assessment tools were developed in the following stages: preparation and approval of biological, programmatic, and demographic variables; weighting of the selected variables by a panel of experts; calculation of the risk index; specialization; and knowledge transfer. Of the 346 Chilean communes analyzed, 34% were in the high-risk interval for experiencing a measles and rubella outbreak with the introduction of the virus, 59%, in the average-risk interval, and 3%, in the low-risk interval. The remaining percentage corresponded to communes lacking data in at least one of the 13 variables required for calculating the risk index. Use of this tool will enable subnational teams to use their own data to evaluate the risk of outbreaks in their area and take corrective action for a rapid response to any importation of these viruses in the post-elimination phase.

Software Mentioned

SIG
Google Maps
MINSAL
GIS
QuantumGIS

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