Risk Score for Predicting 2-Year Mortality in Patients With Chagas Cardiomyopathy From Endemic Areas: SaMi-Trop Cohort Study.

Journal of the American Heart Association
Claudia Di Lorenzo OliveiraAntonio Luiz P Ribeiro

Abstract

Background Risk stratification of Chagas disease patients in the limited-resource setting would be helpful in crafting management strategies. We developed a score to predict 2-year mortality in patients with Chagas cardiomyopathy from remote endemic areas. Methods and Results This study enrolled 1551 patients with Chagas cardiomyopathy from Minas Gerais State, Brazil, from the SaMi-Trop cohort (The São Paulo-Minas Gerais Tropical Medicine Research Center). Clinical evaluation, ECG, and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) were performed. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop a prediction model based on the key predictors. The end point was all-cause mortality. The patients were classified into 3 risk categories at baseline (low, <2%; intermediate, ≥2% to 10%; high, ≥10%). External validation was performed by applying the score to an independent population with Chagas disease. After 2 years of follow-up, 110 patients died, with an overall mortality rate of 3.505 deaths per 100 person-years. Based on the nomogram, the independent predictors of mortality were assigned points: age (10 points per decade), New York Heart Association functional class higher than I (15 points), heart rate ≥80 beats/min (...Continue Reading

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Citations

Mar 17, 2021·International Journal of Stroke : Official Journal of the International Stroke Society·Thiago Cerqueira-SilvaJamary Oliveira-Filho
Aug 27, 2021·Nature Communications·Emilly M LimaAntonio Luiz P Ribeiro

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R Foundation for Statistical Computing
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