Risky choice with heuristics: reply to Birnbaum (2008), Johnson, Schulte-Mecklenbeck, and Willemsen (2008), and Rieger and Wang (2008)

Psychological Review
Eduard BrandstätterRalph Hertwig

Abstract

E. Brandstätter, G. Gigerenzer, and R. Hertwig (2006) showed that the priority heuristic matches or outperforms modifications of expected utility theory in predicting choice in 4 diverse problem sets. M. H. Birnbaum (2008) argued that sets exist in which the opposite is true. The authors agree--but stress that all choice strategies have regions of good and bad performance. The accuracy of various strategies systematically depends on choice difficulty, which the authors consider a triggering variable underlying strategy selection. Agreeing with E. J. Johnson, M. Schulte-Mecklenbeck, and M. C. Willemsen (2008) that process (not "as-if") models need to be formulated, the authors show how quantitative predictions can be derived and test them. Finally, they demonstrate that many of Birnbaum's and M. O. Rieger and M. Wang's (2008) case studies championing their preferred models involved biased tests in which the priority heuristic predicted data, whereas the parameterized models were fitted to the same data. The authors propose an adaptive toolbox approach of risky choice, according to which people first seek a no-conflict solution before resorting to conflict-resolving strategies such as the priority heuristic.

Citations

Oct 17, 2013·Brain and Cognition·Li-Lin RaoShu Li
Oct 17, 2013·Cognitive Psychology·Gregory J Koop, Joseph G Johnson
Sep 21, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Andreas JarvstadPaul A Warren
Sep 17, 2014·Acta Psychologica·Eduard Brandstätter, Christof Körner
Jun 25, 2013·Journal of Consumer Psychology : the Official Journal of the Society for Consumer Psychology·Eric J Johnson
Jan 1, 2009·Topics in Cognitive Science·Gerd Gigerenzer, Henry Brighton
Sep 1, 2010·Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Cognitive Science·Joseph G Johnson, Jerome R Busemeyer
Jan 15, 2014·Cognition·Andreas JarvstadSimon K Rushton
Aug 30, 2019·PLoS Computational Biology·Moshe GlickmanMarius Usher
Aug 28, 2020·Frontiers in Psychology·Xueyun Zeng, Yuting Ouyang

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