Role of extreme weather events and El Niño Southern Oscillation on incidence of Enteric Fever in Ahmedabad and Surat, Gujarat, India.

Environmental Research
Veena IyerAmir Sapkota

Abstract

Enteric Fever (EF) affects over 14.5 million people every year globally, with India accounting for the largest share of this burden. The water-borne nature of the disease makes it prone to be influenced as much by unsanitary living conditions as by climatic factors. The detection and quantification of the climatic effect can lead to improved public health measures which would in turn reduce this burden. We obtained a list of monthly Widal positive EF cases from 1995 to 2017 from Ahmedabad and Surat Municipalities. We obtained population data, daily weather data, and Oceanic Niño Index values from appropriate sources. We quantified the association between extreme weather events, phases of El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and incidence of EF. Both cities showed a seasonal pattern of EF, with cases peaking in early monsoon. Risk of EF was affected equally in both cities by the monsoon season -- Ahmedabad (35%) and Surat (34%). Extreme precipitation was associated with 5% increase in EF in Ahmedabad but not in Surat. Similarly, phases of ENSO had opposite effects on EF across the two cities. In Ahmedabad, strong El Niño months were associated with 64% increase in EF risk while strong La Niña months with a 41% reduction in risk....Continue Reading

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