Rules of thumb for conservation of metapopulations based on a stochastic winking-patch model

The American Naturalist
R S Etienne, J A Heesterbeek

Abstract

From a theoretical viewpoint, nature management basically has two options to prolong metapopulation persistence: decreasing local extinction probabilities and increasing colonization probabilities. This article focuses on those options with a stochastic, single-species metapopulation model. We found that for most combinations of local extinction probabilities and colonization probabilities, decreasing the former increases metapopulation extinction time more than does increasing the latter by the same amount. Only for relatively low colonization probabilities is an effort to increase these probabilities more beneficial, but even then, decreasing extinction probabilities does not seem much less effective. Furthermore, we found the following rules of thumb. First, if one focuses on extinction, one should preferably decrease the lowest local extinction probability. Only if the extinction probabilities are (almost) equal should one prioritize decreases in the local extinction probability of the patch with the best direct connections to and from other patches. Second, if one focuses on colonization, one should preferably increase the colonization probability between the patches with the lowest local extinction probability. Only if th...Continue Reading

References

May 2, 1998·Theoretical Population Biology·J M Halley, Y Iwasa
Mar 30, 2000·Journal of Theoretical Biology·R S Etienne, J A Heesterbeek
Apr 28, 2000·Nature·I Hanski, O Ovaskainen
Aug 19, 2008·The American Naturalist·C C VosC J Ter Braak

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Citations

Nov 26, 2002·Mathematical Biosciences·Otso Ovaskainen
Apr 22, 2010·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Samuel C Nicol, Hugh P Possingham
Jan 28, 2014·Biomacromolecules·Christoph EnglertUlrich S Schubert
May 22, 2018·The Journal of Animal Ecology·Morgan W TingleyRodney B Siegel
Apr 5, 2016·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Darren M SouthwellMichael A McCarthy
Feb 11, 2021·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Giorgia Cecino, Eric A Treml
Nov 9, 2002·Science·Luc LensErik Matthysen

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