Satellite SST-Based Coral Disease Outbreak Predictions for the Hawaiian Archipelago

Remote Sensing
Jamie M CaldwellMegan J Donahue

Abstract

Predicting wildlife disease risk is essential for effective monitoring and management, especially for geographically expansive ecosystems such as coral reefs in the Hawaiian archipelago. Warming ocean temperature has increased coral disease outbreaks contributing to declines in coral cover worldwide. In this study we investigated seasonal effects of thermal stress on the prevalence of the three most widespread coral diseases in Hawai'i: Montipora white syndrome, Porites growth anomalies and Porites tissue loss syndrome. To predict outbreak likelihood we compared disease prevalence from surveys conducted between 2004 and 2015 from 18 Hawaiian Islands and atolls with biotic (e.g., coral density) and abiotic (satellite-derived sea surface temperature metrics) variables using boosted regression trees. To date, the only coral disease forecast models available were developed for Acropora white syndrome on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Given the complexities of disease etiology, differences in host demography and environmental conditions across reef regions, it is important to refine and adapt such models for different diseases and geographic regions of interest. Similar to the Acropora white syndrome models, anomalously warm conditio...Continue Reading

References

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Citations

Mar 23, 2018·Diseases of Aquatic Organisms·A Shore-MaggioS M Callahan
Oct 14, 2017·Environmental Microbiology·Hanaka Mera, David G Bourne
Feb 20, 2020·Scientific Reports·Jamie M CaldwellMegan J Donahue
Nov 6, 2020·Global Change Biology·Lisa I CouperErin A Mordecai

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
thermal stress
environmental stress

Software Mentioned

R
Hot
Pathfinder
gbm
MPSA

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