Scaling law characterizing the dynamics of the transition of HIV-1 to error catastrophe

Physical Biology
Vipul Gupta, Narendra M Dixit

Abstract

Increasing the mutation rate, μ of viruses above a threshold, μ(c) has been predicted to trigger a catastrophic loss of viral genetic information and is being explored as a novel intervention strategy. Here, we examine the dynamics of this transition using stochastic simulations mimicking within-host HIV-1 evolution. We find a scaling law governing the characteristic time of the transition: τ ≈ 0.6/(μ - μ(c)). The law is robust to variations in underlying evolutionary forces and presents guidelines for treatment of HIV-1 infection with mutagens. We estimate that many years of treatment would be required before HIV-1 can suffer an error catastrophe.

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Citations

Dec 16, 2018·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Luiza Guimarães FabretiFernando Antoneli

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