Scenario modeling for spatial-temporal change detection of carbon storage and sequestration in a forested landscape in Northern Iran

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
Ardavan ZarandianSeyedeh Bahareh Azimi

Abstract

The present study was conducted, based on scenario modeling approach, in the Do-hezar and Se-hezar forested landscape in the Mazandaran Province in Northern Iran in order to detect spatial-temporal changes of carbon storage and sequestration in four different carbon pools, i.e., aboveground and belowground biomasses, dead organic matter, and organic soils. For this purpose, firstly, the changing trend of land use/land cover (LULC) was detected by analyzing and comparing remotely sensed data of the landscape during the period of 1984-2016. Then, the impacts of future LULC changes on carbon storage and sequestration were predicted and valued using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model under two future plausible scenarios of business as usual (BAU) and balanced development (BD). According to the results of BAU scenario, continuation of the current trend will lead to a significant reduction in the carbon sequestration and a huge amount of social cost due to the loss of carbon stored in the landscape and its release to the atmosphere. The BD scenario which refers to the principled and under control development of human settlements simultaneously with forest conservational and restoration activi...Continue Reading

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