Scenario simulations of future salinity and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea and adjacent North Sea areas-implications for environmental monitoring

Ecological Indicators
Ilppo VuorinenJoachim W Dippner

Abstract

Substantial ecological changes occurred in the 1970s in the Northern Baltic during a temporary period of low salinity (S). This period was preceded by an episodic increase in the rainfall over the Baltic Sea watershed area. Several climate models, both global and regional, project an increase in the runoff of the Northern latitudes due to proceeding climate change. The aim of this study is to model, firstly, the effects on Baltic Sea salinity of increased runoff due to projected global change and, secondly, the effects of salinity change on the distribution of marine species. The results suggest a critical shift in the S range 5-7, which is a threshold for both freshwater and marine species distributions and diversity. We discuss several topics emphasizing future monitoring, modelling, and fisheries research. Environmental monitoring and modelling are investigated because the developing alternative ecosystems do not necessarily show the same relations to environment quality factors as the retiring ones. An important corollary is that the observed and modelled S changes considered together with species' ranges indicate what may appear under a future climate. Consequences could include a shift in distribution areas of marine bent...Continue Reading

References

Jul 22, 2011·Marine Pollution Bulletin·Hendrik SchubertSergei Skarlato

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Citations

Jan 3, 2016·Marine Environmental Research·Björn IllingMyron A Peck
Jul 25, 2019·Molecular Ecology·Elias BromanFrancisco J A Nascimento
May 24, 2017·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Paolo MomiglianoJuha Merilä
Mar 10, 2017·Environmental Monitoring and Assessment·Anna-Karin AlménJonna Engström-Öst
Jul 30, 2020·The Science of the Total Environment·Mirella KanervaKristiina A Vuori

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