Science is not a signal detection problem

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Brent M WilsonJohn T Wixted

Abstract

The perceived replication crisis and the reforms designed to address it are grounded in the notion that science is a binary signal detection problem. However, contrary to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) logic, the magnitude of the underlying effect size for a given experiment is best conceptualized as a random draw from a continuous distribution, not as a random draw from a dichotomous distribution (null vs. alternative). Moreover, because continuously distributed effects selected using a P < 0.05 filter must be inflated, the fact that they are smaller when replicated (reflecting regression to the mean) is no reason to sound the alarm. Considered from this perspective, recent replication efforts suggest that most published P < 0.05 scientific findings are "true" (i.e., in the correct direction), with observed effect sizes that are inflated to varying degrees. We propose that original science is a screening process, one that adopts NHST logic as a useful fiction for selecting true effects that are potentially large enough to be of interest to other scientists. Unlike original science, replication science seeks to precisely measure the underlying effect size associated with an experimental protocol via large-N direct ...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jun 18, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Jolynn PekGary H McClelland
Aug 17, 2020·European Eating Disorders Review : the Journal of the Eating Disorders Association·Roser GraneroFernando Fernández-Aranda
Jun 18, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Brent M WilsonJohn T Wixted
Feb 23, 2021·The British Journal of Social Psychology·Naomi Ellemers
Mar 26, 2021·Neurobiology of Aging·Sabina SrokovaMichael D Rugg
Jul 16, 2021·Perspectives on Psychological Science : a Journal of the Association for Psychological Science·Cédric BataillerBertram Gawronski
Aug 25, 2021·Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience·Macià Buades-RotgerUlrike M Krämer

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