SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe.

European Heart Journal
SCORE2 working group and ESC Cardiovascular risk collaboration

Abstract

The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe. We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systol...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jul 30, 2021·European Heart Journal·Mark Nicholls
Jul 31, 2021·European Journal of Preventive Cardiology·Ian M Graham
Aug 15, 2021·European Heart Journal·Charalambos Antoniades, Henry W West
Aug 31, 2021·European Heart Journal·Frank L J VisserenUNKNOWN ESC Scientific Document Group
Sep 25, 2021·European Journal of Preventive Cardiology·Frank L J VisserenUNKNOWN ESC Scientific Document Group
Nov 12, 2021·GeroScience·Johannes T NeumannJohn J McNeil

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