PMID: 8596091Dec 1, 1995Paper

Seasonal variation in coronary heart disease in Scotland

Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
A S DouglasJ M Rawles

Abstract

Seasonality of coronary heart disease (CHD) was examined to determine whether fatal and non-fatal disease have the same annual rhythm. Time series analysis was carried out on retrospective data over a 10 year period and analysed by age groups ( < 45 to > 75 years) and gender. Data by month were obtained for the years 1962-71. The Registrar General provided information on deaths and the Research and Intelligence Unit of the Scottish Home and Health Department on hospital admissions. In Scotland, between 1962 and 1971, 123 000 patients were admitted to hospital for CHD, of whom 29 000 died. There were a further 97 000 CHD deaths outside hospital. These two groups were also examined as one (coronary incidence) - that is, all coronary deaths and coronary admissions discharged alive. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND MAIN RESULTS: Where there was a single annual peak, the sine curve was analysed by cosinor analysis. When there were two peaks the analysis was by normal approximation to Poisson distribution. In younger men (under 45 years) admitted to hospital there was a dominant spring peak and an autumn trough. A bimodal pattern of spring and winter peaks was evident for hospital admissions in older male age groups: with increasing age the ...Continue Reading

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