Seasonality and trend analysis of tuberculosis in Lahore, Pakistan from 2006 to 2013

Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health
Aasia KhaliqM Nawaz Chaudhry

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is a respiratory infectious disease which shows seasonality. Seasonal variation in TB notifications has been reported in different regions, suggesting that various geographic and demographic factors are involved in seasonality. The study was designed to find out the temporal and seasonal pattern of TB incidence in Lahore, Pakistan from 2006 to 2013 in newly diagnosed pulmonary TB cases. SPSS version 21 software was used for correlation to determine the temporal relationship and time series analysis for seasonal variation. Temperature was found to be significantly associated with TB incidence at the 0.01 level with p=0.006 and r=0.477. Autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function showed a significant peak at lag 4 suggesting a seasonal component of the TB series. Seasonal adjusted factor showed peak seasonal variation in the second quarter (April-June). The expert modeler predicted the Holt-Winter's additive model as the best fit model for the time series, which exhibits a linear trend with constant (additive) seasonal variations, and the stationary R(2) value was found to be 0.693. The forecast shows a declining trend with seasonality. A significant temporal relation with a seasonal pattern an...Continue Reading

References

Jul 15, 2003·Clinical Microbiology Reviews·Issar Smith
Apr 27, 2005·International Journal of Epidemiology·Chi Chiu LeungWing Sze Law
Jan 9, 2008·BMC Infectious Diseases·Saeed Akhtar, Hameed G H H Mohammad
Nov 4, 2008·World Health & Population·Olalekan A Uthman
Apr 24, 2009·The European Respiratory Journal·N NaranbatH L Rieder
Nov 21, 2009·Clinics in Chest Medicine·Philippe GlaziouMario Raviglione
May 17, 2011·Journal of Global Infectious Diseases·Auda Fares
Sep 8, 2011·The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Andrew J CodlinAamir J Khan
Apr 12, 2013·The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease : the Official Journal of the International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease·X XuZ-X Lu
Nov 26, 2013·Lancet·Alimuddin Zumla Baroness Masham of Ilton
Dec 18, 2013·Epidemiology and Infection·T LuoQ Duan
Mar 7, 2014·The Journal of Infectious Diseases·Tom WingfieldCarlton A Evans
Apr 30, 2014·Tuberculosis Research and Treatment·Varun KumarSaudan Singh
Jun 28, 2014·Infection and Drug Resistance·James A Seddon, Delane Shingadia
Oct 30, 2014·International Journal of Biometeorology·Daisuke Onozuka, Akihito Hagihara
Nov 2, 2014·Cold Spring Harbor Perspectives in Medicine·Philippe GlaziouMario Raviglione

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

May 11, 2016·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Kai CaoXiuhua Guo
Jul 30, 2016·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Adeboye AzeezRuffin Muntabayi
Dec 21, 2016·International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases·Cristina Vilaplana
Nov 30, 2018·Epidemiology and Health·Eun Hee Kim, Jong-Myon Bae
Dec 15, 2019·Environmental Science and Pollution Research International·Muhammad Mansoor AsgharSyed Anees Haider Zaidi
Apr 3, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Ying MaoNing Zhang
Jun 8, 2018·Infectious Diseases of Poverty·Mina Sadeq, Jamal Eddine Bourkadi
Feb 27, 2021·BMC Infectious Diseases·Mohsin F ButtAdrian R Martineau
Mar 18, 2021·International Journal of Biometeorology·Bijay MaharjanYing Zhang

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Software Mentioned

SPSS
Excel

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.

© 2021 Meta ULC. All rights reserved