Selection-Like Biases Emerge in Population Models with Recurrent Jackpot Events

Genetics
Oskar Hallatschek

Abstract

Evolutionary dynamics driven out of equilibrium by growth, expansion, or adaptation often generate a characteristically skewed distribution of descendant numbers: the earliest, the most advanced, or the fittest ancestors have exceptionally large number of descendants, which Luria and Delbrück called "jackpot" events. Here, I show that recurrent jackpot events generate a deterministic median bias favoring majority alleles, which is akin to positive frequency-dependent selection (proportional to the log ratio of the frequencies of mutant and wild-type alleles). This fictitious selection force results from the fact that majority alleles tend to sample deeper into the tail of the descendant distribution. The flip side of this sampling effect is the rare occurrence of large frequency hikes in favor of minority alleles, which ensures that the allele frequency dynamics remains neutral in expectation, unless genuine selection is present. The resulting picture of a selection-like bias compensated by rare big jumps allows for an intuitive understanding of allele frequency trajectories and enables the exact calculation of transition densities for a range of important scenarios, including population-size variations and different forms of n...Continue Reading

References

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Dec 28, 2012·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Richard A Neher, Oskar Hallatschek
Sep 5, 2013·Genetics·Katya Kosheleva, Michael M Desai
Sep 11, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Richard A NeherBoris I Shraiman
Jan 17, 2014·Genetics·Daniel B Weissman, Oskar Hallatschek
Nov 5, 2014·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Oskar Hallatschek, Daniel S Fisher
Jul 4, 2017·ELife·Daniel B Weissman, Oskar Hallatschek

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Citations

Jul 15, 2020·Genetics·Dominik Wodarz, Natalia L Komarova
May 28, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Vedant SachdevaArvind Murugan
Sep 19, 2019·Virus Evolution·Patrick Hoscheit, Oliver G Pybus
May 7, 2021·Genetics·Dominik Wodarz, Natalia L Komarova
Aug 21, 2021·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Gabriel BirzuKirill S Korolev

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