Sensitivity analyses for simulating pesticide impacts on honey bee colonies

Ecological Modelling
A Carmen KuanS Thomas Purucker

Abstract

We employ Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis techniques to describe the population dynamics of pesticide exposure to a honey bee colony using the VarroaPop+Pesticide model. Simulations are performed of hive population trajectories with and without pesticide exposure to determine the effects of weather, queen strength, foraging activity, colony resources, and Varroa populations on colony growth and survival. The daily resolution of the model allows us to conditionally identify sensitivity metrics. Simulations indicate queen strength and forager lifespan are consistent, critical inputs for colony dynamics in both the control and exposed conditions. Adult contact toxicity, application rate and nectar load become critical parameters for colony dynamics within exposed simulations. Daily sensitivity analysis also reveals that the relative importance of these parameters fluctuates throughout the simulation period according to the status of other inputs.

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Citations

Aug 8, 2020·Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry·Amelie SchmolkeSilvia Hinarejos
Aug 11, 2020·Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry·Farah Abi-AkarSilvia Hinarejos
Dec 16, 2020·Analytical Methods : Advancing Methods and Applications·Priscila A R de SousaRodrigo A B da Silva
Mar 12, 2021·Food Additives & Contaminants. Part B, Surveillance·Mesut Ertan GünesFatma Esen
Aug 11, 2021·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Jeffrey M MinucciS Thomas Purucker

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