Sensitivity analysis of a two-dimensional probabilistic risk assessment model using analysis of variance

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Amirhossein Mokhtari, H Christopher Frey

Abstract

This article demonstrates application of sensitivity analysis to risk assessment models with two-dimensional probabilistic frameworks that distinguish between variability and uncertainty. A microbial food safety process risk (MFSPR) model is used as a test bed. The process of identifying key controllable inputs and key sources of uncertainty using sensitivity analysis is challenged by typical characteristics of MFSPR models such as nonlinearity, thresholds, interactions, and categorical inputs. Among many available sensitivity analysis methods, analysis of variance (ANOVA) is evaluated in comparison to commonly used methods based on correlation coefficients. In a two-dimensional risk model, the identification of key controllable inputs that can be prioritized with respect to risk management is confounded by uncertainty. However, as shown here, ANOVA provided robust insights regarding controllable inputs most likely to lead to effective risk reduction despite uncertainty. ANOVA appropriately selected the top six important inputs, while correlation-based methods provided misleading insights. Bootstrap simulation is used to quantify uncertainty in ranks of inputs due to sampling error. For the selected sample size, differences in ...Continue Reading

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Citations

Apr 9, 2009·Environmental Monitoring and Assessment·Jilang PanNikolaos Voulvoulis
Apr 10, 2008·Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology·Ad M J RagasMark A J Huijbregts
Mar 8, 2006·Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology·Amirhossein MokhtariJunyu Zheng
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Feb 18, 2009·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Régis PouillotMarie Cornu
Jul 21, 2007·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Régis PouillotMarie Cornu
Jul 21, 2007·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Richard R LesterIgor Linkov
May 22, 2007·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Hilko van der Voet, Wout Slob
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