Abstract
The current situation regarding bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in Europe is spatially heterogeneous, with stagnating or increasing trends in bTB prevalence in many European regions, underlying the challenge in controlling this disease. In France, in spite of the implementation of two control programs in 2010-2012 to eradicate the disease and maintain the bTB-free status, bTB prevalence has continued to increase, underlying the need to reinforce and adapt surveillance measures. The goal of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of bTB surveillance in high-risk areas in metropolitan France, with an emphasis on the criteria to select herds and animals within herds in the context of programmed surveillance and movement testing. The fraction of bTB-infected herds detected by the surveillance was quantified using a stochastic scenario tree modelling approach, with input parameter values based on surveillance and cattle traceability data and literature. The detection fraction was assessed for the current surveillance system and for alternative scenarios. The model predicted that the median detection fraction of infected herds by the current programmed surveillance in high-risk areas, which consists in annual testing of herds with a m...Continue Reading
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