Feb 19, 2016

Sentinel versus passive surveillance for measuring changes in dengue incidence: Evidence from three concurrent surveillance systems in Iquitos, Peru

BioRxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
Sandra OlkowskiThomas W. Scott


Monitoring changes in infectious disease incidence is fundamental to outbreak detection and response, intervention outcome monitoring, and identifying environmental correlates of transmission. In the case of dengue, little is known about how consistently surveillance data track disease burden in a population over time. Here we use four years of monthly dengue incidence data from three sources: population-based ('passive') surveillance including suspected cases, 'sentinel' surveillance with 100% laboratory confirmation and complete reporting, and door-to-door ('cohort') surveillance conducted three times per week in Iquitos, Peru, to quantify their relative consistency and timeliness. Data consistency was evaluated using annual and monthly expansion factors (EFs) as cohort incidence divided by incidence in each surveillance system, to assess their reliability for estimating disease burden (annual) and monitoring disease trends (monthly). Annually, passive surveillance data more closely estimated cohort incidence (average annual EF=5) than did data from sentinel surveillance (average annual EF=19). Monthly passive surveillance data generally were more consistent (ratio of sentinel/passive EF standard deviations=2.2) but overestim...Continue Reading

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Mentioned in this Paper

Dengue Fever
Executive Function
Late Effects of Cerebrovascular Disease, Other Paralytic Syndrome Affecting Unspecified Side
Cell Growth
Disease Transmission
Monitoring - Action
Infection Surveillance
Population Group

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