Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt's model

Revista Da Sociedade Brasileira De Medicina Tropical
Edson Zangiacomi MartinezAltacílio Aparecido Nunes

Abstract

We evaluated the performance of the Holt's model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. The Holt's model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state. The Holt's model can be an adequate short-term forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.

References

Nov 26, 2013·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Junling MaDavid J D Earn
Feb 6, 2020·Annals of Internal Medicine·Ashleigh R Tuite, David N Fisman
Mar 3, 2020·Journal of Autoimmunity·Hussin A Rothan, Siddappa N Byrareddy
Mar 14, 2020·Lancet·Roy M AndersonT Déirdre Hollingsworth
Mar 15, 2020·The Lancet Infectious Diseases·Adam J KucharskiUNKNOWN Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 working group
Mar 17, 2020·International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases·Di WuZhicong Yang
May 14, 2020·Cadernos de saúde pública·Guilherme Loureiro Werneck, Marilia Sá Carvalho

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Sep 24, 2020·Revista Da Sociedade Brasileira De Medicina Tropical·Raphael Mendonça GuimarãesRafael de Castro Catão
Sep 3, 2020·Revista Da Sociedade Brasileira De Medicina Tropical·Edson Zangiacomi MartinezAltacílio Aparecido Nunes
Feb 20, 2021·Revista Da Sociedade Brasileira De Medicina Tropical·Edson Zangiacomi MartinezDavi Casale Aragon

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Software Mentioned

R

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.

© 2022 Meta ULC. All rights reserved