Simulating and analysing infectious disease data in a heterogeneous population with migration

Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine
Martin Wolkewitz, Martin Schumacher

Abstract

Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases has gained growing attention in epidemiology during the last decades. The major benefits of simulating compartmental models are the prediction of the consequences of potential interventions, a deeper understanding of epidemic dynamics and clinical decision support. The main limitation is however that several parameters are based on uncertain expert guesses (default values) and are not estimated from the study data. In this paper we build a bridge between an extension of the well-known deterministic S-I-R (Susceptible-Infectious-Removed) model which can be described with differential equations and the stochastic counterpart which can be used for statistical inference if outbreak data on an individual level are available. The possibly time-dependent transmission rate as well as the (basic) reproduction number are the main epidemiological parameters of interest. Furthermore, one important type of heterogeneity is considered: individuals may vary due to their susceptibility, i.e., risk factors for infection may be investigated. A SAS computer program is provided to simulate outbreak data for this type of setting. The statistical analysis and typical challenges with epidemic data are dis...Continue Reading

References

Jun 9, 1999·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·D J AustinR M Anderson
Feb 19, 2004·Biometrics·Thomas H Scheike, Mei-Jie Zhang
Sep 6, 2005·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Glenn F WebbShigui Ruan
Mar 16, 2007·BMC Infectious Diseases·Martin EichnerStefan O Brockmann
Jul 19, 2008·American Journal of Epidemiology·Ben S CooperGeoffrey M Scott
Sep 2, 2008·Statistics in Medicine·M WolkewitzJ Huebner
Jan 7, 2009·Statistics in Medicine·Jan BeyersmannMartin Schumacher
Jan 13, 2009·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Erica M C D'AgataShigui Ruan

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

May 19, 2011·Magnetic Resonance in Chemistry : MRC·Ruud L E G AspersMartin Jaeger
Mar 5, 2011·Biometrical Journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift·Jan BeyersmannMartin Schumacher

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.

Related Papers

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering : MBE
Avner FriedmanKhalid Boushaba
© 2021 Meta ULC. All rights reserved