Simulating climate change and socio-economic change impacts on flows and water quality in the Mahanadi River system, India

The Science of the Total Environment
L JinSananda Sarkar

Abstract

Delta systems formed by the deposition of sediments at the mouths of large catchments are vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate change impacts. Deltas often have some of the highest population densities in the world and the Mahanadi Delta in India is one of these, with a population of 39 million. The Mahanadi River is a major river in East Central India and flows through Chattisgarh and Orissa states before discharging into the Bay of Bengal. This study uses an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) to simulate flow dynamics and water quality (nitrogen and phosphorus) and to analyze the impacts of climate change and socio-economic drivers in the Mahanadi River system. Future flows affected by large population growth, effluent discharge increases and changes in irrigation water demand from changing land uses are assessed under shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Model results indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates at 2050s (2041-2060) and 2090s (2079-2098) which greatly enhances flood potential. The water availability under low flow conditions will be worsened because of increased water demand from population growth and increased irrigation in the future. Decreased concentrations of nit...Continue Reading

Citations

Nov 30, 2020·The Science of the Total Environment·Felipe Dalzotto ArtuzoEdson Talamini
Mar 11, 2020·Environmental Science and Pollution Research International·Xia LiGuojin Li
May 10, 2020·The Science of the Total Environment·P G WhiteheadG Alabaster
Nov 13, 2021·The Science of the Total Environment·Cathal O'DonoghueKaren Daly

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