Simulating Market Entry Rewards for Antibiotics Development

The Journal of Law, Medicine & Ethics : a Journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics
Christopher OkhraviFrancesco Ciabuschi

Abstract

We design an agent based Monte Carlo model of antibiotics research and development (R&D) to explore the effects of the policy intervention known as Market Entry Reward (MER) on the likelihood that an antibiotic entering pre-clinical development reaches the market. By means of sensitivity analysis we explore the interaction between the MER and four key parameters: projected net revenues, R&D costs, venture capitalists discount rates, and large pharmaceutical organizations' financial thresholds. We show that improving revenues may be more efficient than reducing costs, and thus confirm that this pull-based policy intervention effectively stimulates antibiotics R&D.

References

Dec 13, 2006·Nature Biotechnology·Martin L KatzSteven F Weinstock
Apr 9, 2011·Nature·Matthew A Cooper, David Shlaes
Apr 3, 2016·The Lancet Infectious Diseases·John H Rex, Kevin Outterson

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Citations

Aug 28, 2018·The Journal of Law, Medicine & Ethics : a Journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics·Esther BettiolStephan Harbarth
Aug 28, 2018·The Journal of Law, Medicine & Ethics : a Journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics·Enrico BaraldiChristine Årdal
Jun 9, 2020·Frontiers in Public Health·Christopher Okhravi

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