Simulating Soil Organic Carbon Responses to Cropping Intensity, Tillage, and Climate Change in Pacific Northwest Dryland

Journal of Environmental Quality
Hero T Gollany, Robert W Polumsky

Abstract

Managing dryland cropping systems to increase soil organic C (SOC) under changing climate is challenging after decades of winter wheat ( L.)-fallow and moldboard plow tillage (W-F/MP). The objective was to use CQESTR, a process-based C model, and SOC data collected in 2004, 2008, and 2012 to predict the best management to increase SOC under changing climate in four cropping systems, which included continuous wheat under no tillage (W-W/NT), wheat and sorghum × sudangrass [ (L.) Moench. × L.] under no tillage, wheat-fallow under sweep tillage, and W-F/MP. Since future yields and climate are uncertain, 20 scenarios for each cropping system were simulated with four climate projections and five crop yield scenarios (current crop yields, and 10 or 30% greater or lesser yields). Measured and simulated SOC were significantly ( < 0.0001) correlated ( = 0.98) at all soil depths. Predicted SOC changes ranged from -12.03 to 2.56 Mg C ha in the 1-m soil depth for W-F/MP and W-W/NT, respectively, during the 2012 to 2052 predictive period. Only W-W/NT sequestered SOC at a rate of 0.06 Mg C ha yr under current crop yields and climate. Under climate change and yield scenarios, W-W/NT lost SOC except with a 30% wheat yield increase for 40 yr. P...Continue Reading

References

Jan 22, 2005·Nature·W KnorrE A Holland
Nov 26, 2015·Nature·Johannes Lehmann, Markus Kleber
Mar 11, 2017·Science·Caitlin E Hicks PriesM S Torn

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Citations

Jul 20, 2018·Journal of Environmental Quality·Hero T Gollany, Rodney T Venterea

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