Simulating the impact of a cigarette minimum floor price law on adult smoking prevalence in California

Nicotine & Tobacco Research : Official Journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco
Shelley D GoldenPratima Musburger

Abstract

Minimum floor price laws (MFPLs) are an emerging tobacco control policy that sets a minimum price below which a specific tobacco product cannot be sold. MFPLs target cheaper products and may disproportionately impact consumers choosing low price brands or using discounts to reduce prices. We developed a static microsimulation model for California, USA to project short-term effects of different MFPL options for a 20-stick pack of cigarettes on adult smoking behaviors. We simulated 300,000 individuals defined by race/ethnicity, sex, age, and poverty status. Smoking behaviors and cigarette prices were assigned based on demographic distributions in the 2014-2016 California Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. We drew 100 random samples (n=30,000), weighted to state-level California demographic characteristics. We simulated six MFPL options and modeled impacts on smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption, in general, and separately for those in households below or above 250% of the federal poverty level (FPL), assuming a price elasticity of -0.4. Predicted changes in prices, prevalence, and consumption increased exponentially as the floor price increased from $7.00 to $9.50. Assuming 15% policy avoidance, projected increas...Continue Reading

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