DOI: 10.1101/19009555Apr 15, 2020Paper

Simulation models of dengue transmission in Funchal, Madeira Island: influence of seasonality

MedRxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
Donald SalamiC. Lord

Abstract

The recent emergence and established presence of Aedes aegypti in the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal, was responsible for the first autochthonous outbreak of dengue in Europe. The island has not reported any dengue cases since the outbreak in 2012. However, there is a high risk that an introduction of the virus would result in another autochthonous outbreak given the presence of the vector and permissive environmental conditions. Understanding the dynamics of a potential epidemic is critical for targeted local control strategies. Here, we adopt a deterministic model for the transmission of dengue in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The model integrates empirical and mechanistic parameters for virus transmission, under seasonally varying temperatures for Funchal, Madeira Island. We examine the epidemic dynamics as triggered by the arrival date of an infectious individual; the influence of seasonal temperature mean and variation on the epidemic dynamics; and performed a sensitivity analysis on the following quantities of interest: the epidemic peak size, time to peak and the final epidemic size. Our results demonstrate the potential for summer to early winter transmission of dengue, with the arrival date significantly affecting ...Continue Reading

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