Simulation of climate-change scenarios to explain Usutu-virus dynamics in Austria

Preventive Veterinary Medicine
Katharina Brugger, Franz Rubel

Abstract

The emergence and spread of infectious diseases in mid-latitudes, so far mainly observed in the tropics, considerably increase under the current situation of climate change. A recent example is the Usutu virus (USUV) outbreak in Austria. USUV is closely related to the West Nile virus in the U.S. and caused mass mortalities mainly of blackbirds (Turdus merula). The USUV flavivirus persists in a natural transmission cycle between vectors (mosquitoes) and host reservoirs (birds) and leads - once endemic in a population - to periodic outbreaks. In an epidemic model to explain the USUV dynamics in Austria 2001-2005, USUV dynamics were mainly determined by an interaction of bird immunity and environmental temperature. To investigate future scenarios, we entered temperature predictions from five global climate models into the USUV model and also considered four different climate-warming scenarios defined by the I ntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC (20 different model-scenario combinations). We downscaled the 20 time series of predicted temperatures (through the year 2100) to represent the region around Vienna. Our simulations predict that USUV will persist in the host population after the epidemic peak observed in 2003. US...Continue Reading

References

Jun 22, 2002·Science·C Drew HarvellMichael D Samuel
Oct 14, 2003·Microbes and Infection·Herbert WeissenböckNorbert Nowotny
Mar 4, 2008·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·Franz RubelNorbert Nowotny

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Citations

Apr 23, 2013·Veterinary Microbiology·Fernando Sánchez-VizcaínoJosé Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno
Jul 20, 2011·Vector Borne and Zoonotic Diseases·Birgit NikolayAmadou Alpha Sall
Apr 10, 2010·Parasites & Vectors·Martin Pfeffer, Gerhard Dobler
Nov 26, 2010·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·Vincent LaperriereFranz Rubel
Nov 11, 2015·Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases·Franz RubelOlaf Kahl
Sep 11, 2019·Transboundary and Emerging Diseases·Pia WeidingerNorbert Nowotny
Jul 25, 2019·Viruses·Ferdinand RoeschMarco Vignuzzi
Oct 14, 2018·International Journal of Health Geographics·Yanchao ChengCarl Beierkuhnlein
Mar 11, 2020·Frontiers in Veterinary Science·Nina Eva Trimmel, Chris Walzer
Sep 16, 2019·Virus Research·Marie Henriette Dior NdioneGamou Fall
Jun 13, 2020·The Science of the Total Environment·Muhammad Mazhar IqbalMuhammad Jawed Iqbal
Aug 6, 2021·Avian Pathology : Journal of the W.V.P.A·Volker SchmidtMichael Sieg

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