Simulation of expected childhood and adolescent thyroid cancer cases in Japan using a cancer-progression model based on the National Cancer Registry: Application to the first-round thyroid examination of the Fukushima Health Management Survey

Medicine
Hideto TakahashiKenji Kamiya

Abstract

During the 4 years following the nuclear power plant accident of 2011, 39 males and 77 females were diagnosed with or suspected of having cancer based on the first-round thyroid examination of the Fukushima Health Management Survey (FHMS) targeting residents aged <19 years in Fukushima. Prior comparisons between the observed data and Japan's National Cancer Registry (NCR) data suggested that this incidence might be excessive, but such comparisons are problematic because they need not only to adjust index unit (prevalence proportion vs incidence rate), but also examine characteristics (complete enumeration mass screening for the aged 0 to 18 years vs detections in clinical settings for all the residents) and sensitivity of the examinations. The purpose of this study is to build a common model applicable to any region in Japan under nonaccident conditions, and estimate the expected prevalence based on the numbers of subjects surveyed in the FHMS using a simulation of the sensitivity.The cancer-progression model is an extension of Day and Walter's, the parameters of which were estimated by minimizing the weighted root mean squared error between the average age-specific thyroid incident rates from 2001 to 2010 in the NCR and those ...Continue Reading

References

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Jul 20, 2016·Thyroid : Official Journal of the American Thyroid Association·Sae OchiKenji Shibuya

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Citations

Jun 14, 2019·JAMA Otolaryngology-- Head & Neck Surgery·Akira OhtsuruKenji Kamiya
Feb 23, 2019·PloS One·Reiko ShimbashiUNKNOWN and the Adult IPD Study Group
Jun 14, 2019·JAMA Otolaryngology-- Head & Neck Surgery·Kazuyo SuzukiTakahiro Wada
Nov 25, 2020·Endocrine Journal·Sanae Midorikawa, Akira Ohtsuru
Oct 9, 2019·The Lancet. Diabetes & Endocrinology·Livia LamartinaDavid S Cooper

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