Sink or Swim? A survival analysis of sport dropout in Australian youth swimmers.

Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports
Kylie MouldsStephen Cobley

Abstract

To examine long-term participation and dropout rates in Australian youth swimming using survival analyses and to determine whether multiple individual, socio-demographic, and competition-related factors influenced dropout. Retrospective cohort study of registration and competitive performance data. Part 1-Registration data from N = 17 161 female (n = 9400) and male (n = 7761) New South Wales (NSW) swimmers aged 10-15 years (inclusive). Part 2-Competition level involvement in a subsample of female (n = 1011) and male (n = 811) swimmers, aged 12-15 years, was also examined. To determine dropout rates and influential factors, Kaplan-Meier survival analyses supplemented by Cox regression were used. (1) Kaplan-Meier analyses identified median sustained participation rates of four years (95% CI = 3.93-4.06), with 15.9% maintaining participation over 10 years. Cox regressions identified age-group was associated with dropout (P < .001), with a 184.9% higher Hazard Rate (HR) for 10- vs 15-year-olds. Residential proximity to major cities was associated with dropout (P < .001), with urban swimmers reporting a 24.8% higher HR rate than rural swimmers. Sex and relative age were not associated with dropout. (2) The subsample median sustained...Continue Reading

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Citations

May 25, 2021·Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health·Amy E PedenAlison J Mahony

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