Skill assessment for an operational algal bloom forecast system.

Journal of Marine Systems : Journal of the European Association of Marine Sciences and Techniques
Richard P StumpfTimothy T Wynne

Abstract

An operational forecast system for harmful algal blooms (HABs) in southwest Florida is analyzed for forecasting skill. The HABs, caused by the toxic dinoflagellate, Karenia brevis, lead to shellfish toxicity and to respiratory irritation. In addition to predicting new blooms and their extent, HAB forecasts are made twice weekly during a bloom event, using a combination of satellite derived image products, wind predictions, and a rule-based model derived from previous observations and research. These forecasts include: identification, intensification, transport, extent, and impact; the latter being the most significant to the public. Identification involves identifying new blooms as HABs and is validated against an operational monitoring program involving water sampling. Intensification forecasts, which are much less frequently made, can only be evaluated with satellite data on mono-specific blooms. Extent and transport forecasts of HABs are also evaluated against the water samples. Due to the resolution of the forecasts and available validation data, skill cannot be resolved at scales finer than 30 km. Initially, respiratory irritation forecasts were analyzed using anecdotal information, the only available data, which had a bia...Continue Reading

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Citations

Nov 12, 2011·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Timothy T WynneJohn D Christensen
Mar 31, 2012·Annual Review of Marine Science·Donald M AndersonGustaaf M Hallegraeff
Dec 15, 2010·Toxicon : Official Journal of the International Society on Toxinology·Luisa MangialajoRodolphe Lemée
Jan 11, 2011·Harmful Algae·Lora E FlemingDaniel G Baden
Dec 23, 2015·Estuaries and Coasts : Journal of the Estuarine Research Federation·David K RalstonDonald M Anderson
Aug 1, 2014·Deep-sea Research. Part II, Topical Studies in Oceanography·Judith L KleindinstChristopher Nash
Sep 1, 2014·Journal of Environmental Management·Keith DavidsonGrigorios Moschonas
Sep 10, 2010·Marine Pollution Bulletin·Heather HavensCynthia A Heil
Jul 15, 2018·Applied and Environmental Microbiology·Huajun ZhangXiangyu Zhu
Jan 2, 2018·Frontiers in Marine Science·Cecile S Rousseaux, Watson W Gregg
Feb 1, 2018·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Michael C DietzeEthan P White
Feb 15, 2020·Harmful Algae·David K Ralston, Stephanie K Moore
Jan 12, 2017·Harmful Algae·Clarissa R AndersonTenaya A Norris
Mar 20, 2021·The Science of the Total Environment·Fan ZhangSo Hyun Sophia Ahn

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