Abstract
An operational forecast system for harmful algal blooms (HABs) in southwest Florida is analyzed for forecasting skill. The HABs, caused by the toxic dinoflagellate, Karenia brevis, lead to shellfish toxicity and to respiratory irritation. In addition to predicting new blooms and their extent, HAB forecasts are made twice weekly during a bloom event, using a combination of satellite derived image products, wind predictions, and a rule-based model derived from previous observations and research. These forecasts include: identification, intensification, transport, extent, and impact; the latter being the most significant to the public. Identification involves identifying new blooms as HABs and is validated against an operational monitoring program involving water sampling. Intensification forecasts, which are much less frequently made, can only be evaluated with satellite data on mono-specific blooms. Extent and transport forecasts of HABs are also evaluated against the water samples. Due to the resolution of the forecasts and available validation data, skill cannot be resolved at scales finer than 30 km. Initially, respiratory irritation forecasts were analyzed using anecdotal information, the only available data, which had a bia...Continue Reading
References
Jul 28, 2001·Science·J S ClarkD Wear
May 4, 2005·Environmental Health Perspectives·Lorraine C BackerDaniel G Baden
May 4, 2005·Environmental Health Perspectives·Lora E FlemingDaniel G Baden
Jan 16, 2007·Chest·Lora E FlemingDaniel G Baden
Sep 22, 2007·The Journal of Asthma : Official Journal of the Association for the Care of Asthma·Alexyz MilianBarbara Kirkpatrick
Citations
Nov 12, 2011·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Timothy T WynneJohn D Christensen
Mar 31, 2012·Annual Review of Marine Science·Donald M AndersonGustaaf M Hallegraeff
Mar 17, 2015·Marine Drugs·Andrew D TurnerWendy Higman
Nov 5, 2011·Harmful Algae·Judy A BeanDaniel G Baden
Dec 15, 2010·Toxicon : Official Journal of the International Society on Toxinology·Luisa MangialajoRodolphe Lemée
Dec 20, 2011·Remote Sensing of Environment·Gustavo A CarvalhoCynthia A Heil
Jan 11, 2011·Harmful Algae·Lora E FlemingDaniel G Baden
Dec 23, 2015·Estuaries and Coasts : Journal of the Estuarine Research Federation·David K RalstonDonald M Anderson
Aug 1, 2014·Deep-sea Research. Part II, Topical Studies in Oceanography·Judith L KleindinstChristopher Nash
Sep 1, 2014·Journal of Environmental Management·Keith DavidsonGrigorios Moschonas
Mar 25, 2014·The Science of the Total Environment·Qiuwen ChenYanhui Zhang
Sep 10, 2010·Marine Pollution Bulletin·Heather HavensCynthia A Heil
Jun 9, 2016·Scientific Reports·Samantha A SiedleckiRichard A Feely
Jul 15, 2018·Applied and Environmental Microbiology·Huajun ZhangXiangyu Zhu
Jun 21, 2019·PloS One·D Ransom HardisonR Wayne Litaker
Jan 2, 2018·Frontiers in Marine Science·Cecile S Rousseaux, Watson W Gregg
Feb 1, 2018·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Michael C DietzeEthan P White
Aug 8, 2020·The Science of the Total Environment·Rui WangPaul K S Lam
Feb 15, 2020·Harmful Algae·David K Ralston, Stephanie K Moore
Nov 14, 2018·Harmful Algae·Jayme SmithDavid A Caron
Jan 12, 2017·Harmful Algae·Julie MaguireKeith Davidson
Jan 12, 2017·Harmful Algae·Clarissa R AndersonTenaya A Norris
Mar 20, 2021·The Science of the Total Environment·Fan ZhangSo Hyun Sophia Ahn
Jan 1, 2014·Harmful Algae·A A KurekinH J Van der Woerd
Apr 21, 2021·Harmful Algae·Donald M AndersonVera L Trainer
May 14, 2021·Harmful Algae·Michael L ParsonsDonald M Anderson