Slowing the progression of chronic renal failure: economic benefits and patients' perspectives

American Journal of Kidney Diseases : the Official Journal of the National Kidney Foundation
Hariprasad TrivediPaulette Saab

Abstract

Because of the predicted increase in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) incidence (projected increase from 1998 to 2010; 86,825 to 172,667), prevalence (projected increase from 1998 to 2010; 326,217 to 661,330), and cost (total cost based on 1998 ratio of Medicare versus non-Medicare cost; $16.74 billion in 1998 to $39.35 billion in 2010), a cohesive national effort is needed to develop strategies to slow the progression of chronic renal failure (CRF). The question arises to how much reduction in the progression of CRF would lead to a meaningful decrease in the prevalence and cost of ESRD. There are no objective data that show the economic impact of slowing the progression of CRF. We developed a mathematical model to assess the economic impact of decreasing the progression of CRF by 10%, 20%, and 30%. US Renal Data System (USRDS) projections were used to model the rate of increase in ESRD incidence and prevalence. Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) at the initiation of ESRD therapy and cost per patient-year were based on USRDS data. The average decline in GFR in subjects with CRF was estimated to be 7.56 mL/min/y. All dollar savings reflect 1998 costs, discounted for the future at 3% per annum. We also determined how much slowing of ...Continue Reading

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