PMID: 7334950Dec 1, 1981Paper

Smoking, lung cancer and hypothesis testing

Medical Hypotheses
P R Burch

Abstract

It has been shown previously that the precipitator hypothesis of causation is able to account for certain key features of the epidemiological evidence that conflict with initiator and promoter hypotheses. The precipitator hypothesis states that the carcinogenic risk depends linearly in the average rate of smoking at an interval of tau years before death and that the 'doubling dose-rate', of D cigarettes per yr, is constant with respect to age from 35yr and above. In an earlier paper this hypothesis was tested by analysing secular trends in sex- and age-specific mortality from lung cancer recorded in England and Wales in relation to secular trends in cigarette consumption. The periods considered extended from 1950 up to 1975. The great majority of data failed to support the precipitator hypothesis but the well known errors in death certification were undoubtedly responsible for many anomalies. There were some indications of improved diagnostic accuracy towards the end of the period and hence it was considered important to update the analysis. This paper considers the trends over the recent period, 1974-5 to 1977-8. Unfortunately these newer data also appear to contain anomalies and they fail to support the precipitator hypothesi...Continue Reading

References

Jan 1, 1977·International Journal of Health Services : Planning, Administration, Evaluation·I Waldron
Dec 1, 1978·Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health·G Rose, P J Hamilton
Jan 1, 1980·Journal of Chronic Diseases·P R Burch
Jan 1, 1981·Journal of Chronic Diseases·P R Burch
Apr 1, 1959·Transplantation Bulletin·B FISHER

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Citations

Jan 1, 1983·Journal of Chronic Diseases·P R Burch
Sep 1, 1982·Medical Hypotheses·P R Burch
Jul 19, 2012·Clinical and Experimental Allergy : Journal of the British Society for Allergy and Clinical Immunology·L V WainM D Tobin

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