Smoking paradox in the development of psoriatic arthritis among patients with psoriasis: a population-based study.

Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases
Uyen-Sa D T NguyenHyon Choi

Abstract

Smoking is associated with an increased risk of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in the general population, but not among patients with psoriasis. We sought to clarify the possible methodological mechanisms behind this paradox. Using 1995-2015 data from The Health Improvement Network, we performed survival analysis to examine the association between smoking and incident PsA in the general population and among patients with psoriasis. We clarified the paradox using mediation analysis and conducted bias sensitivity analyses to evaluate the potential impact of index event bias and quantify its magnitude from uncontrolled/unmeasured confounders. Of 6.65 million subjects without PsA at baseline, 225 213 participants had psoriasis and 7057 developed incident PsA. Smoking was associated with an increased risk of PsA in the general population (HR 1.27; 95% CI 1.19 to 1.36), but with a decreased risk among patients with psoriasis (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.84 to 0.99). Mediation analysis showed that the effect of smoking on the risk of PsA was mediated almost entirely through its effect on psoriasis. Bias-sensitivity analyses indicated that even when the relation of uncontrolled confounders to either smoking or PsA was modest (both HRs=~1.5), it could...Continue Reading

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Nov 2, 2018·Expert Review of Clinical Immunology·Elena Pezzolo, Luigi Naldi
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