Soil Carbon Response to Projected Climate Change in the US Western Corn Belt

Journal of Environmental Quality
Brian J WienholdGary E Varvel

Abstract

The western US Corn Belt is projected to experience major changes in growing conditions due to climate change over the next 50 to 100 yr. Projected changes include increases in growing season length, number of high temperature stress days and warm nights, and precipitation, with more heavy rainfall events. The impact these changes will have on soil organic carbon (SOC) needs to be estimated and adaptive changes in management developed to sustain soil health and system services. The process-based model CQESTR was used to model changes in SOC stocks (0-30 cm) of continuous corn ( L.) and a corn-soybean [ (L.) Merr.] rotation under disk, chisel, ridge, and no-tillage using projected growing season conditions for the next 50 yr. Input for the model was based on management and harvest records from a long-term tillage study (1986-2015) in eastern Nebraska, and model output was validated using measured changes in SOC from 1999 to 2011 in the study. The validated model was used to estimate changes in SOC over 17 yr under climatic conditions projected for 2065 under two scenarios: (i) crop yields increasing at the observed rate from 1971 to 2016 or (ii) crop yields reduced due to negative effects of increasing temperature. CQESTR estima...Continue Reading

References

Sep 1, 2009·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Wolfram Schlenker, Michael J Roberts
Oct 8, 2011·Nature·Michael W I SchmidtSusan E Trumbore
Nov 13, 2013·Journal of Environmental Quality·S J Del GrossoD James
Aug 16, 2017·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Chuang ZhaoSenthold Asseng

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Citations

Jul 20, 2018·Journal of Environmental Quality·Hero T Gollany, Rodney T Venterea

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