Spatial prediction of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in Somalia.

Malaria Journal
Abdisalan M NoorRobert W Snow

Abstract

Maps of malaria distribution are vital for optimal allocation of resources for anti-malarial activities. There is a lack of reliable contemporary malaria maps in endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa. This problem is particularly acute in low malaria transmission countries such as those located in the horn of Africa. Data from a national malaria cluster sample survey in 2005 and routine cluster surveys in 2007 were assembled for Somalia. Rapid diagnostic tests were used to examine the presence of Plasmodium falciparum parasites in finger-prick blood samples obtained from individuals across all age-groups. Bayesian geostatistical models, with environmental and survey covariates, were used to predict continuous maps of malaria prevalence across Somalia and to define the uncertainty associated with the predictions. For analyses the country was divided into north and south. In the north, the month of survey, distance to water, precipitation and temperature had no significant association with P. falciparum prevalence when spatial correlation was taken into account. In contrast, all the covariates, except distance to water, were significantly associated with parasite prevalence in the south. The inclusion of covariates improved mod...Continue Reading

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May 23, 2012·Malaria Journal·Heidi L ReidArchie C A Clements
May 18, 2013·Malaria Journal·Catherine L MoyesSimon I Hay
May 15, 2009·Malaria Journal·Abdisalan M NoorRobert W Snow
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WorldClim
GFATM
SE
Google Earth
WinBUGS
ArcGIS
Stata

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