Spatially explicit scenario analysis for reconciling agricultural expansion, forest protection, and carbon conservation in Indonesia.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Lian Pin Koh, Jaboury Ghazoul

Abstract

Palm oil is the world's most important vegetable oil in terms of production quantity. Indonesia, the world's largest palm-oil producer, plans to double its production by 2020, with unclear implications for the other national priorities of food (rice) production, forest and biodiversity protection, and carbon conservation. We modeled the outcomes of alternative development scenarios and show that every single-priority scenario had substantial tradeoffs associated with other priorities. The exception was a hybrid approach wherein expansion targeted degraded and agricultural lands that are most productive for oil palm, least suitable for food cultivation, and contain the lowest carbon stocks. This approach avoided any loss in forest or biodiversity and substantially ameliorated the impacts of oil-palm expansion on carbon stocks (limiting net loss to 191.6 million tons) and annual food production capacity (loss of 1.9 million tons). Our results suggest that the environmental and land-use tradeoffs associated with oil-palm expansion can be largely avoided through the implementation of a properly planned and spatially explicit development strategy.

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Citations

Oct 12, 2010·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Sean Sloan, Nigel Stork
Mar 30, 2011·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Jennifer S PowersEdzo Veldkamp
Mar 9, 2011·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Lian Pin KohJaboury Ghazoul
Jan 11, 2012·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Jonah BuschFrederick Boltz
Apr 24, 2012·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Kimberly M CarlsonHermann O Rodrigues
Aug 1, 2012·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Juha SiikamäkiSunny L Jardine
May 15, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Jeffrey Sayer, Kenneth G Cassman
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Aug 7, 2012·Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology·Matias E Mastrangelo, Michael C Gavin
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Aug 11, 2015·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Elizabeth A LawKerrie A Wilson
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Jun 18, 2015·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Paul J FerraroKatharine R E Sims
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Oct 19, 2016·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Oliver R WearnRobert M Ewers
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