Spatio-temporal modelling and assessment of within-species phenological variability using thermal time methods

International Journal of Biometeorology
R Thompson, R M Clark

Abstract

Phenological observations of flowering date, budding date or senescence provide very valuable time series. They hold out the prospect for relating plant growth to environmental and climatic factors and hence for engendering a better understanding of plant physiology under natural conditions. The statistical establishment of associations between time series of phenological data and climatic factors provides a means of aiding forecasts of the biological impacts of future climatic change. However, it must be kept in mind that plant growth and behaviour vary spatially as well as temporally. Environmental, climatic and genetic diversity can give rise to spatially structured variation on a range of scales. The variations extend from large-scale geographical (clinal) trends, through medium-scale population and sub-population fluctuations, to micro-scale differentiation among neighbouring plants, where spatially close individuals are found to be genetically more alike than those some distance apart. We developed spatio-temporal phenological models that allow observations from multiple locations to be analysed simultaneously. We applied the models to the first-flowering dates of Prunus padus and Tilia cordata from localities as far apar...Continue Reading

Citations

Jan 15, 2008·International Journal of Biometeorology·Adrian M I Roberts
Aug 26, 2011·International Journal of Biometeorology·Fábio Vale ScarpareLuiz Roberto Angelocci
Sep 29, 2011·International Journal of Biometeorology·Yukitaka OhashiNobuko Yamamoto
May 22, 2013·International Journal of Biometeorology·Quansheng GeJunhu Dai
Nov 5, 2010·PLoS Biology·Meryl J WilliamsPatrick N Halpin
May 21, 2017·International Journal of Biometeorology·Alison Donnelly, Rong Yu
Oct 13, 2021·Ecology Letters·Michael W BelitzBrian J Stucky

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