Spatio-temporal spillover risk of yellow fever in Brazil

Parasites & Vectors
RajReni B KaulJohn M Drake

Abstract

Yellow fever virus is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that persists in an enzoonotic cycle in non-human primates (NHPs) in Brazil, causing disease in humans through spillover events. Yellow fever (YF) re-emerged in the early 2000s, spreading from the Amazon River basin towards the previously considered low-risk, southeastern region of the country. Previous methods mapping YF spillover risk do not incorporate the temporal dynamics and ecological context of the disease, and are therefore unable to predict seasonality in spatial risk across Brazil. We present the results of a bagged logistic regression predicting the propensity for YF spillover per municipality (administrative sub-district) in Brazil from environmental and demographic covariates aggregated by month. Ecological context was incorporated by creating National and Regional models of spillover dynamics, where the Regional model consisted of two separate models determined by the regions' NHP reservoir species richness (high vs low). Of the 5560 municipalities, 82 reported YF cases from 2001 to 2013. Model accuracy was high for the National and low reservoir richness (LRR) models (AUC = 0.80), while the high reservoir richness (HRR) model accuracy was lower (AUC = 0.63). The ...Continue Reading

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Citations

Dec 19, 2018·EcoHealth·Marco A B de AlmeidaJúlio César Bicca-Marques
Aug 14, 2019·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Paul C CrossKim M Pepin
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Dec 2, 2020·Emerging Topics in Life Sciences·Livia SacchettoNikos Vasilakis
Jun 23, 2021·The Science of the Total Environment·Micanaldo Ernesto FranciscoKozo Watanabe
Aug 4, 2021·Journal of Environmental and Public Health·Roberto C IlacquaGabriel Z Laporta
Oct 6, 2021·American Journal of Primatology·Mélissa BerthetJúlio Cèsar Bicca-Marques
Nov 20, 2021·Global Change Biology·Colin J CarlsonBoris V Schmid

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Software Mentioned

BalancedSampling
MaxEnt
R

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