Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ebola Virus Disease at Sub-National Level during the 2014 West Africa Epidemic: Model Scrutiny and Data Meagreness

PloS One
Eva SantermansDiamantis Plachouras

Abstract

The Ebola outbreak in West Africa has infected at least 27,443 individuals and killed 11,207, based on data until 24 June, 2015, released by the World Health Organization (WHO). This outbreak has been characterised by extensive geographic spread across the affected countries Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, and by localized hotspots within these countries. The rapid recognition and quantitative assessment of localised areas of higher transmission can inform the optimal deployment of public health resources. A variety of mathematical models have been used to estimate the evolution of this epidemic, and some have pointed out the importance of the spatial heterogeneity apparent from incidence maps. However, little is known about the district-level transmission. Given that many response decisions are taken at sub-national level, the current study aimed to investigate the spatial heterogeneity by using a different modelling framework, built on publicly available data at district level. Furthermore, we assessed whether this model could quantify the effect of intervention measures and provide predictions at a local level to guide public health action. We used a two-stage modelling approach: a) a flexible spatiotemporal growth model a...Continue Reading

References

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Sep 19, 2014·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·H Nishiura, G Chowell
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Citations

Jul 28, 2016·Physics of Life Reviews·Gerardo ChowellCécile Viboud
Jul 21, 2016·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Fabienne KrauerChristian L Althaus
Feb 1, 2019·Journal of Global Health·Nefti-Eboni BempongAntoine Flahault
Mar 30, 2018·PeerJ·Anuwat WiratsudakulCharin Modchang
Jul 27, 2021·Physica a·Rafael A BarrioTzipe Govezensky

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