Spatiotemporal modeling of ecological and sociological predictors of West Nile virus in Suffolk County, NY, mosquitoes

Ecosphere
Mark H MyerJohn M Johnston

Abstract

Suffolk County, New York, is a locus for West Nile virus (WNV) infection in the American northeast that includes the majority of Long Island to the east of New York City. The county has a system of light and gravid traps used for mosquito collection and disease monitoring. In order to identify predictors of WNV incidence in mosquitoes and predict future occurrence of WNV, we have developed a spatiotemporal Bayesian model, beginning with over 40 ecological, meteorological, and built-environment covariates. A mixed-effects model including spatially and temporally correlated errors was fit to WNV surveillance data from 2008 to 2014 using the R package "R-INLA," which allows for Bayesian modeling using the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) SPDE allows for simultaneous fitting of a temporal parameter and a spatial covariance, while incorporating a variety of likelihood functions and running in R statistical software on a home computer. We found that land cover classified as open water and woody wetlands had a negative association with WNV incidence in mosquitoes, and the count of septic systems was associated with an increase in WNV. Mean temperature at two-w...Continue Reading

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
PCA

Software Mentioned

R Development Core Team
R package “ ROCR
INLA SPDE
WinBUGS
ArcGIS
Landsat Image Service Add - In for ArcGIS
Windows
SPDE
Daymet
JAGS

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