Species distribution models throughout the invasion history of Palmer amaranth predict regions at risk of future invasion and reveal challenges with modeling rapidly shifting geographic ranges

Scientific Reports
Ryan D Briscoe RunquistDavid A Moeller

Abstract

Palmer amaranth (Amaranthus palmeri) is an annual plant native to the desert Southwest of the United States and Mexico and has become invasive and caused large economic losses across much of the United States. In order to examine the temporal and spatial dynamics of past invasion, and to predict future invasion, we developed a broad array of species distribution models (SDMs). In particular, we constructed sequential SDMs throughout the invasion history and asked how well those predicted future invasion (1970 to present). We showed that invasion occurred from a restricted set of environments in the native range to a diverse set in the invaded range. Spatial autocorrelation analyses indicated that rapid range expansion was facilitated by stochastic, long-distance dispersal events. Regardless of SDM approach, all SDMs built using datasets from early in the invasion (1970-2010) performed poorly and failed to predict most of the current invaded range. Together, these results suggest that climate is unlikely to have influenced early stages of range expansion. SDMs that incorporated data from the most recent sampling (2011-2017) performed considerably better, predicted high suitability in regions that have recently become invaded, an...Continue Reading

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Citations

Sep 17, 2020·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Neftalí SilleroMarta Pascual
Mar 20, 2020·Scientific Reports·Eslam M HosniMohamed A Kenawy

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
PCA

Software Mentioned

rmaxent
R
PRISM
MIROC
spdep
rgdal
ROCR
rgeos
dismo
CliMond

Related Concepts