Spread of E. coli O157 infection among Scottish cattle farms: stochastic models and model selection.

Epidemics
Xu-Sheng ZhangMark E J Woolhouse

Abstract

Identifying risk factors for the presence of Escherichia coli O157 infection on cattle farms is important for understanding the epidemiology of this zoonotic infection in its main reservoir and for informing the design of interventions to reduce the public health risk. Here, we use data from a large-scale field study carried out in Scotland to fit both "SIS"-type dynamical models and statistical risk factor models. By comparing the fit (assessed using maximum likelihood) of different dynamical models we are able to identify the most parsimonious model (using the AIC statistic) and compare it with the model suggested by risk factor analysis. Both approaches identify 2 key risk factors: the movement of cattle onto the farm and the number of cattle on the farm. There was no evidence for a role of other livestock species or seasonality, or of significant risk of local spread. However, the most parsimonious dynamical model does predict that farms can infect other farms through routes other than cattle movement, and that there is a nonlinear relationship between the force of infection and the number of infected farms. An important prediction from the most parsimonious model is that although only approximately 20% farms may harbour E....Continue Reading

References

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Mar 16, 2007·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Wei-chung LiuMark E J Woolhouse
Mar 28, 2008·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Michael J TildesleyMatt J Keeling

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Citations

Nov 19, 2010·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Xu-Sheng Zhang, Mark E J Woolhouse
Jun 1, 2011·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Mark Woolhouse
May 8, 2015·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Peter M DawsonMichael J Tildesley
May 28, 2017·Applied and Environmental Microbiology·Jay N WorleyEdward R Atwill

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