Stage-structured infection transmission and a spatial epidemic: a model for Lyme disease

The American Naturalist
Thomas CaracoBoleslaw K Szymanski

Abstract

A greater understanding of the rate at which emerging disease advances spatially has both ecological and applied significance. Analyzing the spread of vector-borne disease can be relatively complex when the vector's acquisition of a pathogen and subsequent transmission to a host occur in different life stages. A contemporary example is Lyme disease. A long-lived tick vector acquires infection during the larval blood meal and transmits it as a nymph. We present a reaction-diffusion model for the ecological dynamics governing the velocity of the current epidemic's spread. We find that the equilibrium density of infectious tick nymphs (hence the risk of human disease) can depend on density-independent survival interacting with biotic effects on the tick's stage structure. The local risk of infection reaches a maximum at an intermediate level of adult tick mortality and at an intermediate rate of juvenile tick attacks on mammalian hosts. If the juvenile tick attack rate is low, an increase generates both a greater density of infectious nymphs and an increased spatial velocity. However, if the juvenile attack rate is relatively high, nymph density may decline while the epidemic's velocity still increases. Velocities of simulated two...Continue Reading

References

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Aug 19, 2008·The American Naturalist·J S ClarkL Horvath

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Citations

Nov 1, 2011·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Xiao-Qiang Zhao
Jun 24, 2006·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Timothy C RelugaAlison P Galvani
Aug 4, 2004·Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Jennifer Orme Zavaleta, Philippe A Rossignol
Aug 13, 2011·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Shannon L LaDeauRichard S Ostfeld
May 9, 2008·The American Naturalist·N A HarteminkJ A P Heesterbeek
Dec 8, 2007·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Thomas Caraco, Ing-Nang Wang
Dec 24, 2004·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Gyorgy Korniss, Thomas Caraco
Jun 23, 2004·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Tim Reluga
Oct 29, 2014·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Guihong FanHuaiping Zhu
Aug 19, 2006·Theoretical Population Biology·Lauren O'MalleyThomas Caraco
Jan 3, 2006·Mathematical Biosciences·Frank M HilkerHorst Malchow
Nov 30, 2014·Theoretical Biology & Medical Modelling·Yijun LouXiaotian Wu
Sep 28, 2004·Physical Review. E, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics·Joshua S Weitz, Daniel H Rothman
Jan 6, 2010·EcoHealth·Amy S Turmelle, Kevin J Olival
Dec 27, 2018·PLoS Computational Biology·Gina PoloDirk Brockmann
Aug 11, 2020·Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution·Lauren J CatorSamraat Pawar
Apr 26, 2017·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Christina L FaustRaina K Plowright
Mar 15, 2020·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Daniel Carrera-PineyroChristopher Kribs
Apr 19, 2019·Infectious Disease Modelling·Aileen NguyenNaveen K Vaidya
Sep 18, 2018·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Gina PoloFernando Ferreira

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