State selection in Markov models for panel data with application to psoriatic arthritis

Statistics in Medicine
Howard H Z ThomLinda D Sharples

Abstract

Markov multistate models in continuous-time are commonly used to understand the progression over time of disease or the effect of treatments and covariates on patient outcomes. The states in multistate models are related to categorisations of the disease status, but there is often uncertainty about the number of categories to use and how to define them. Many categorisations, and therefore multistate models with different states, may be possible. Different multistate models can show differences in the effects of covariates or in the time to events, such as death, hospitalisation, or disease progression. Furthermore, different categorisations contain different quantities of information, so that the corresponding likelihoods are on different scales, and standard, likelihood-based model comparison is not applicable. We adapt a recently developed modification of Akaike's criterion, and a cross-validatory criterion, to compare the predictive ability of multistate models on the information which they share. All the models we consider are fitted to data consisting of observations of the process at arbitrary times, often called 'panel' data. We develop an implementation of these criteria through Hidden Markov models and apply them to th...Continue Reading

References

Jul 12, 2002·Statistics in Medicine·R Aguirre-Hernández, V T Farewell
Aug 1, 2007·Arthritis and Rheumatism·Yaser AliDafna D Gladman
Sep 6, 2007·Statistics in Medicine·Andrew C Titman, Linda D Sharples
Nov 17, 2009·Biometrics·Andrew C Titman, Linda D Sharples
Dec 6, 2011·Statistics in Medicine·Brian D M Tom, Vernon T Farewell
Apr 5, 2012·Statistical Methods in Medical Research·Lei LiuJohn M O'Quigley
Apr 27, 2012·Statistical Methods in Medical Research·Jungsoon ChoiJihong Liu
Apr 24, 2013·Statistics in Medicine·Eva D Regnier, Steven M Shechter

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Citations

Nov 22, 2016·Biometrical Journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift·Nadine BinderMartin Schumacher
Aug 9, 2017·Statistical Methods in Medical Research·Anaïs RouanetHélène Jacqmin-Gadda
Sep 9, 2017·Drug and Therapeutics Bulletin
Dec 12, 2017·Communications in Statistics: Simulation and Computation·Christy CassarlyYuko Y Palesch
Mar 28, 2017·PharmacoEconomics·Howard ThomLinda Sharples
Jan 25, 2019·BMC Medical Research Methodology·Gian Luca Di TannaGuillermo Villa

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