PMID: 8968169Dec 1, 1996Paper

Statistical modeling to predict elective surgery time. Comparison with a computer scheduling system and surgeon-provided estimates

Anesthesiology
I H WrightG Bashein

Abstract

Accurate estimation of operating times is a prerequisite for the efficient scheduling of the operating suite. The authors, in this study, sought to compare surgeons' time estimates for elective cases with those of commercial scheduling software, and to ascertain whether improvements could be made by regression modeling. The study was conducted at the University of Washington Medical Center in three phases. Phase 1 retrospectively reviewed surgeons' time estimates and the scheduling system's estimates throughout 1 yr. In phase 2, data were collected prospectively from participating surgeons by means of a data entry form completed at the time of scheduling elective cases. Data included the procedure code, estimated operating time, estimated case difficulty, and potential factors that might affect the duration. In phase 3, identical data were collected from five selected surgeons by personal interview. In phase 1, 26 of 43 surgeons provided significantly better estimates than did the scheduling system (P < 0.01), and no surgeon was significantly worse, although the absolute errors were large (34% of 157 min average case length). In phase 2, modeling improved the accuracy of the surgeons' estimates by 11.5%, compared with the sched...Continue Reading

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Citations

Oct 28, 2005·Canadian Journal of Anaesthesia = Journal Canadien D'anesthésie·Franklin DexterJohannes Ledolter
Aug 21, 2010·Canadian Journal of Anaesthesia = Journal Canadien D'anesthésie·Rene AlvarezMichael Carter
Dec 2, 2000·International Anesthesiology Clinics·J Viapiano, D S Ward
Sep 27, 2006·Anesthesia and Analgesia·Jan EhrenwerthPaul G Barash
May 19, 2009·Anesthesia and Analgesia·Ruth E Wachtel, Franklin Dexter
May 19, 2009·Anesthesia and Analgesia·Ruth E Wachtel, Franklin Dexter
Jun 5, 2013·Anesthesia and Analgesia·Franklin DexterRichard H Epstein
Mar 7, 2014·Canadian Journal of Anaesthesia = Journal Canadien D'anesthésie·Elizabeth van Veen-BerkxGeert Kazemier
Oct 16, 2014·BMC Health Services Research·Raul PulidoCarlos A Méndez
Mar 29, 2013·International Journal of Health Care Quality Assurance·Juha-Matti LehtonenTeemu Moilanen
Oct 3, 2006·Current Opinion in Anaesthesiology·C J Eagle
Dec 1, 1996·Anesthesiology·F Dexter, A Macario
Aug 27, 2014·Journal of Interprofessional Care·Borge Lillebo, Arild Faxvaag
Nov 20, 2012·The Journal of Surgical Research·Panagiotis KougiasDavid H Berger
Nov 13, 2012·American Journal of Surgery·Panagiotis KougiasDavid H Berger
Dec 19, 2015·Anesthesia and Analgesia·Franklin DexterBradley J Hindman
Nov 15, 2008·The International Journal of Health Planning and Management·Prithwiraj SahaAdam Magos
Nov 21, 2008·Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice·Rodrigo B FerreiraRenan M V R Almeida
Nov 29, 2012·ANZ Journal of Surgery·Bishoy A B SolimanShekib Shahbaz
Oct 18, 2005·Annales Françaises D'anesthèsie Et De Rèanimation·S MératJ-M Rousseau
Apr 12, 2016·Journal of the American College of Surgeons·Elizabeth van Veen-BerkxFleur C Mokken
Jul 18, 2015·Paediatric Anaesthesia·Fernanda BravoMichael L McManus
Feb 27, 2015·Clinical Otolaryngology : Official Journal of ENT-UK ; Official Journal of Netherlands Society for Oto-Rhino-Laryngology & Cervico-Facial Surgery·R GroundsD Owens
Dec 17, 2014·Health Care Management Science·Enis KayışKarl Sylvester
Jun 23, 2015·Journal of the American College of Surgeons·Charles W KimbroughCharles R Scoggins
Dec 7, 2014·The Journal of Surgical Research·Elizabeth van Veen-BerkxUNKNOWN Dutch Operating Room Benchmarking Collaborative
Jul 16, 2014·Journal of Minimally Invasive Gynecology·Dario R RoqueGary N Frishman
Jul 12, 2016·The Journal of Arthroplasty·Albert WuRichard D Urman
Jun 17, 2016·Anesthesia and Analgesia·Ruben P A van EijkMarinus J C Eijkemans
Jun 3, 2008·Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine·Erik MayerCharles Vincent

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